This post is off topic. Feel free to delete it or move it if you don't want it here.
>Yes this is what defeat looks like.
That's not a defeat scenario, that's what I expect is the inevitable scenario for all
parties, even well-funded ones. Large models have gotten 10x bigger year-on-year since 2018, and I think training costs have risen faster than that. Companies are eventually going to be forced to specialize in their AI direction, at which point none of them will be "the best" at everything. At that point, if you want "the best" AI, you'll need to be able to plug into multiple models from multiple parties regardless of how well-funded you are. In the long run, no model performs better than a mixture of all the leading models.
I'm not concerned about new
legislation hindering open source AI. The US is far too afraid of China taking the lead on tech to introduce legislation that hinders AI development in any meaningful way. AI deployment, maybe, but AI development, no. I would guess that any Five Eyes country will be the same. The EU is going to get screwed on legislation as usual. That sucks, but as far as I know, the majority of Western open source AI enthusiasm is in the US and UK, and EU legislation is largely irrelevant in this. (Sorry if you're in the EU. If you do get screwed on legislation, maybe some of us can help proxy your work.)
At least in the US, it's more likely that people will use current
legislation against open source AI development, but I think even that is unlikely to succeed at scale. As far as taking advantage of open source code goes, it looks like Microsoft will be forced to take lead on the defense thanks to GitHub and Copilot, and they are very familiar with large legal battles around software. As far as making sure AI has access to copyrighted data, Google has an enormous stake in this, and they have won at least one related battle (Authors Guild, Inc. v. Google) in the US Supreme Court with a ruling that's definitely broad enough to cover AI use cases. As far as open source development goes, open source code and published research papers fall under the First Amendment, and this has been tested at the federal level even for something as extreme as cryptography (Bernstein v. Department of State). These cases can be overturned by the Supreme Court, but public opinion does not sway the current Supreme Court, as has been demonstrated recently with Row v. Wade. From the defense to the precedents to the judges, everything seems to work in favor of open source software in the US.